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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.