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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."