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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.